We provide risk assessments for COVID-19 for three specific geographic areas: countries (and other territories), regions within countries and cities.
Countries and Territories
COVID-19 Country Risk Levels: We assess a Risk Level for each country based on international and domestic restrictions as well as the transmission of the virus. In cases where the country's COVID-19 Risk Level is higher than the country's previous overall Risk Level, the overall level will increase to the COVID-19 Risk Level. (For example, if Country A was previously Moderate Risk overall, but the COVID-19 Risk Level is now High, Country A will be assessed as High overall.)
COVID-19 Risk Levels are a subjective assessment by our analysts based on the following guidelines:
In addition, we describe COVID-19 Country Risk Levels as:
- Travellers should defer non-essential travel to Extreme Risk locations, which have severely restricted international and domestic travel as well as internal movement. These locations have widespread community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and increasing or constant numbers of new COVID-19 cases.
- Travellers should reconsider their need to travel to High Risk locations, which have severely restricted international travel and partially restricted domestic travel and internal movement. These locations have community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus but decreasing numbers of new COVID-19 cases.
- Travellers should exercise caution when travelling to Medium Risk locations, which have partially restricted international travel, but little to no restrictions on domestic travel and internal movement. These locations have clusters of or sporadic transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and constant low numbers of new COVID-19 cases.
- Travellers should take normal precautions when travelling to Moderate Risk locations, which have little to no restrictions on international and domestic travel as well as internal movement. These locations have sporadic transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and near zero new COVID-19 cases.
Note: We do not currently use Low Risk due to the ongoing risk associated with the transmission of the virus worldwide.
Regions (States, Provinces, etc.)
COVID-19 Domestic Travel Rating: We assess travel ratings for states, provinces and regions of countries in which there is no coordinated national response, or when control measures are handled by local authorities. At this time, these ratings do not take into account the threat of virus transmission, only the most salient restrictions on travel and other important activities.
- Extreme: Travel and movement only allowed for essential tasks and medical care.
- High: Some intra-region travel is allowed, but stay-at-home is widely encouraged.
- Medium: Mostly free intra-region travel, with limited travel between regions allowed.
- Moderate: Inter-region travel allowed.
- Low: Minimal restrictions on travel and movement, besides distancing and mask requirements; the 'new normal'.
COVID-19 Infection Risk Level:
Global: This level is calculated based on the number of new infections in the past 14 days per 100,000 people. The data is sourced from the European CDC, which compiles the data as of each Monday and publishes it the following Thursday.
- Low: 0 (Note that some countries report no cases but likely have active infections)
- Moderate: 0-20
- Medium: 20-60
- High: 60-120
- Extreme: 120+
United States of America, Canada and Australia: This level is calculated based on the number of new infections in the past seven days per 100,000 people. The data is sourced from Johns Hopkins University for the USA and Australia; and Canadian Public Health.
- Low Risk: 0-5 cases per 100,000
- Moderate Risk: 5-25
- Medium Risk: 25-50
- High Risk: 50-100
- Extreme Risk: 100+
- Low Risk: not used
- Moderate Risk: 0-10 cases per 100,000
- Medium Risk: 10-20
- High Risk: 20-50
- Extreme Risk: 50+
COVID-19 City Risk Levels: Cities inherit the assessment from their parent region (if assessed by Riskline) or their country. In cases where we determine that a city exhibits a different risk profile than its region or country, we will select the most appropriate risk level based on the above table and include a short 'Summary' to explain the reasoning.
Sources: In addition to its regular open source intelligence (OSINT) monitoring, our team of global intelligence analysts also closely reviews the latest public health developments from government bodies like the World Health Organization (WHO), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), as well as private institutions such as the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Oxford University and the International Society for Infectious Diseases in order to make accurate and timely assessments of travel and health risks.
COVID-19 country/territory case counts: total cases, deaths and recovery numbers for countries are taken from https://covid19api.com, which uses data from Johns Hopkins CSSE. Note that the World Health Organisation uses stricter criteria to confirm infections, and their case count will typically be lower.
Distancing: Maintaining greater physical distance between people in public; outside of social distancing requirements, there are very few restrictions on travel or activities.
Partial Measures/Reopening: Some measures are in place that restrict travel and/or activity that go beyond social distancing requirements. This may include restricting capacity, closing or cancelling shops and activities.
Curfew: restriction on outdoor movement for a portion of the day. Outside of curfew hours, people are generally free to move about.
Lockdown: outdoor movement is restricted except for the purposes of essential work and purchasing essential supplies. Some lockdowns may be enforced by police or military.
Flight ban: regulations or orders are in place that generally restrict the arrival or departure of international commercial flights. Closing all airports within a country, for instance, represents a de facto ban on international flights.
Entry ban: regulations or orders are in place that restrict the entry of foreign travellers - based on nationality, travel history or other criteria - stop the issuance of visas or otherwise prohibit entry at border crossings.
Quarantine: regulations or orders are in place requiring arriving travellers to self-quarantine or be quarantined in a designated facility for a set period of time. These orders may or may not be enforced and monitored by authorities.