We provide risk assessments for COVID-19 for three specific geographic areas: countries (and other territories), regions within countries and cities.
Countries and Territories
COVID-19 Country Risk Levels: We assess a Risk Level for each country based on international and domestic restrictions as well as the transmission of the virus. In cases where the country's COVID-19 Risk Level is higher than the country's previous overall Risk Level, the overall level will increase to the COVID-19 Risk Level. (For example, if Country A was previously Moderate Risk overall, but the COVID-19 Risk Level is now High, Country A will be assessed as High overall.)
COVID-19 Risk Levels are a subjective assessment by our analysts based on the following guidelines:
In addition, we describe COVID-19 Country Risk Levels as:
- Travellers should defer non-essential travel to Extreme Risk locations, which have severely restricted international and domestic travel as well as internal movement. These locations have widespread community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and increasing or constant numbers of new COVID-19 cases.
- Travellers should reconsider their need to travel to High Risk locations, which have severely restricted international travel and partially restricted domestic travel and internal movement. These locations have community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus but decreasing numbers of new COVID-19 cases.
- Travellers should exercise caution when travelling to Medium Risk locations, which have partially restricted international travel, but little to no restrictions on domestic travel and internal movement. These locations have clusters of or sporadic transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and constant low numbers of new COVID-19 cases.
- Travellers should take normal precautions when travelling to Moderate Risk locations, which have little to no restrictions on international and domestic travel as well as internal movement. These locations have sporadic transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and near zero new COVID-19 cases.
Note: We do not currently use Low Risk due to the ongoing risk associated with the transmission of the virus worldwide.
Regions (States, Provinces, etc.)
COVID-19 Domestic Travel Rating: We assess travel ratings for states, provinces and regions of countries in which there is no coordinated national response, or when control measures are handled by local authorities. At this time, these ratings do not take into account the threat of virus transmission, only the most salient restrictions on travel and other important activities.
- Extreme: Travel and movement only allowed for essential tasks and medical care.
- High: Some intra-region travel is allowed, but stay-at-home is widely encouraged.
- Medium: Mostly free intra-region travel, with limited travel between regions allowed.
- Moderate: Inter-region travel allowed.
- Low: Minimal restrictions on travel and movement, besides distancing and mask requirements; the 'new normal'.
COVID-19 Infection Risk Level:
Global: This level is calculated based on the number of new infections in the past 14 days per 100,000 people. The data is sourced from the European CDC, which compiles the data as of each Monday and publishes it the following Thursday.
- Low: 0
- Moderate: 1-19.9
- Medium: 20-59.9
- High: 60-119.9
- Extreme: 120-239.9
- Extreme+: 240-479.9
- Extreme++: 480-959.9
- Extreme+++: 960+
Specific Countries: This level is calculated based on the number of new infections in the past seven days per 100,000 people. The data is sourced from Johns Hopkins University for the USA and Australia; Canadian Public Health; the French government; and the Spanish government.
- Low: 0
- Moderate: 1-9.9
- Medium: 10-29.9
- High: 30-59.9
- Extreme: 60-119.9
- Extreme+: 120-239.9
- Extreme++: 240-479.9
- Extreme+++: 480+
COVID-19 City Risk Levels: Cities inherit the assessment from their parent region (if assessed by Riskline) or their country. In cases where we determine that a city exhibits a different risk profile than its region or country, we will select the most appropriate risk level based on the above table and include a short 'Summary' to explain the reasoning.
Sources: In addition to its regular open source intelligence (OSINT) monitoring, our team of global intelligence analysts also closely reviews the latest public health developments from government bodies like the World Health Organization (WHO), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), as well as private institutions such as the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Oxford University and the International Society for Infectious Diseases in order to make accurate and timely assessments of travel and health risks.
COVID-19 country/territory case counts: total cases, deaths and recovery numbers for countries are taken from https://covid19api.com, which uses data from Johns Hopkins CSSE. Note that the World Health Organisation uses stricter criteria to confirm infections, and their case count will typically be lower.
- Lockdown: Authorities permit only essential services and activities.
- Stay at home: Authorities advise the population to remain at home as much as possible.
- Curfew: Authorities restrict activities and/or services on certain days or at certain times of day.
- Closing: Activities and services are generally closing in response to deteriorating infection trends.
- Opening: Activities and services are generally opening in response to improving infection trends.
- Open: The majority of activities and services have resumed, with social distancing in place.
- Partial Measures: Some activities and services have resumed, while others remain suspended.
- Distancing: Authorities require or recommend social distancing, but few to no other restrictions.
- None: Authorities have taken no special measures in response to the outbreak.
Flight ban: regulations or orders are in place that generally restrict the arrival or departure of international commercial flights. Closing all airports within a country, for instance, represents a de facto ban on international flights.
Entry ban: regulations or orders are in place that restrict the entry of foreign travellers - based on nationality, travel history or other criteria - stop the issuance of visas or otherwise prohibit entry at border crossings.
Quarantine: regulations or orders are in place requiring arriving travellers to self-quarantine or be quarantined in a designated facility for a set period of time. These orders may or may not be enforced and monitored by authorities.
- 'Self': Travellers should self-quarantine at home or at another suitable location of their choosing, such as a hotel or short-stay rental.
- 'Gov': Travellers are required to quarantine at a facility operated by a government; this could include a purpose-built facility or a private accommodation, such as a hotel, run by the government.
- 'Hybrid': Travellers will quarantine at both a government-run facility and self-quarantine, according to local regulations.